Nonstationary Relationship Between Autumn Arctic Sea Ice and the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation
dc.contributor.author | Kolstad, EW | |
dc.contributor.author | Screen, JA | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-07-17T07:37:52Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2019-06-24 | |
dc.description.abstract | The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a dominating influence on wintertime weather in the North Atlantic region, and therefore, it is of great interest to predict the NAO several months ahead. While state-of-the-art dynamical forecast models appear to be increasingly skillful in predicting the NAO, statistical methods with comparable or higher predictive skill are still often used. An inherent problem with statistical methods is that any empirical relationship between predictors and the NAO may be valid for some periods but subject to change over time. Here we use a set of new centennial reanalyses and large-ensemble simulations with multiple climate models to discover clear evidence of nonstationarity in the lagged correlation between autumn Barents-Kara sea ice and the winter NAO. This nonstationarity leads us to question the causality and/or robustness of the ice-NAO link. We caution against indiscriminately using Barents-Kara sea ice to predict the NAO. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Leverhulme Trust | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Research Council of Norway | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Published online 24 June 2019. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1029/2019GL083059 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 727852 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | PLP‐2015‐215 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/N018486/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 270733 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/38002 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) | en_GB |
dc.rights | ©2019. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | en_GB |
dc.subject | sea ice | en_GB |
dc.subject | arctic | en_GB |
dc.subject | NAO | en_GB |
dc.subject | climate | en_GB |
dc.subject | weather | en_GB |
dc.subject | teleconnections | en_GB |
dc.title | Nonstationary Relationship Between Autumn Arctic Sea Ice and the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2019-07-17T07:37:52Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0094-8276 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available from American Geophysical Union (AGU) via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Geophysical Research Letters | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2019-06-09 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2019-06-24 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2019-07-17T07:33:03Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2019-07-17T07:37:55Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as ©2019. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.