| dc.description.abstract | Key Findings
• During a year of critical presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine, the risk of
instability remains high, but a major military offensive by Russia is unlikely. Russian
policy can be interpreted as a form of “strategic deterrence,” in which Moscow seeks to
achieve its goals in Ukraine through a policy of active containment and strategic patience
while avoiding overt military conflict.
• In current Russian usage, “strategic deterrence” is the use of both military and nonmilitary means to prevent strategic gains by an opponent. It combines military means
short of the use of force, such as an aggressive military build-up, with non-military
tactics, including diplomacy, peace negotiations, information warfare, and political
tactics. This strategy has allowed Russia to consolidate control of the Crimean peninsula,
the Donbas region, and the Kerch Strait with only limited use of regular military forces.
• In the longer term, however, the strategic deterrence mind-set poses problems for Russia.
First, it escalates every local conflict in Russia’s borderlands into a high-level strategic
game between Russia and the West, ensuring a long-term crisis in Moscow’s relations
with the West, and limiting Russia's influence inside Ukraine. Second, instead of
resolving conflicts, it produces militarized, stalemate-prone outcomes, leaving Russia
entangled in a belt of semi frozen conflicts around its borders. | en_GB |
