Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum
dc.contributor.author | Ineson, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Maycock, AC | |
dc.contributor.author | Gray, LJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Scaife, AA | |
dc.contributor.author | Dunstone, NJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Harder, JW | |
dc.contributor.author | Knight, JR | |
dc.contributor.author | Lockwood, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Manners, JC | |
dc.contributor.author | Wood, RA | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-11-29T15:00:27Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2015-06-23 | |
dc.description.abstract | Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union FP7 | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | AXA | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 6, article 7535 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/ncomms8535 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | GA01101 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 308378 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/39877 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | en_GB |
dc.rights | Open access. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ | en_GB |
dc.title | Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2019-11-29T15:00:27Z | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2041-1723 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Nature Communications | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ | en_GB |
pubs.euro-pubmed-id | MED:26102364 | |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2015-05-14 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2015-06-23 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2019-11-29T14:57:59Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2019-11-29T15:00:31Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Open access. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/