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dc.contributor.authorFerro, Christopher A.T.
dc.contributor.authorStephenson, David B.
dc.date.accessioned2013-04-26T15:39:17Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.description.abstractVerifying forecasts of rare events is challenging, in part because traditional performance measures degenerate to trivial values as events become rarer. The extreme dependency score was proposed recently as a nondegenerating measure for the quality of deterministic forecasts of rare binary events. This measure has some undesirable properties, including being both easy to hedge and dependent on the base rate. A symmetric extreme dependency score was also proposed recently, but this too is dependent on the base rate. These two scores and their properties are reviewed and the meanings of several properties, such as base-rate dependence and complement symmetry that have caused confusion are clarified. Two modified versions of the extreme dependency score, the extremal dependence index, and the symmetric extremal dependence index, are then proposed and are shown to overcome all of its shortcomings. The new measures are nondegenerating, base-rate independent, asymptotically equitable, harder to hedge, and have regular isopleths that correspond to symmetric and asymmetric relative operating characteristic curves.en_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 26 (5), pp. 699 - 713en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/WAF-D-10-05030.1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/8521
dc.language.isoenen_GB
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05030.1en_GB
dc.subjectExtreme eventsen_GB
dc.subjectForecast verificationen_GB
dc.titleExtremal Dependence Indices: improved verification measures for deterministic forecasts of rare binary eventsen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2013-04-26T15:39:17Z
dc.identifier.issn0882-8156
dc.descriptionCopyright © 2011 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.en_GB
dc.identifier.eissn1520-0434
dc.identifier.journalWeather and Forecastingen_GB


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