Strategic stability and the proliferation of conventional precision strike: a (bounded) case for optimism?
Blagden, D
Date: 12 October 2020
Article
Journal
Nonproliferation Review
Publisher
Taylor & Francis (Routledge) / James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (MIIS)
Publisher DOI
Abstract
What are the potential deterrent advantages of long-range conventional precision strike (LRCPS)
acquisition by new possessor states? Using the case of Poland, this article argues that such
LRCPS proliferation offers two possible deterrent benefits. First, it strengthens its possessors’
ability to threaten aggressors with costs in ...
What are the potential deterrent advantages of long-range conventional precision strike (LRCPS)
acquisition by new possessor states? Using the case of Poland, this article argues that such
LRCPS proliferation offers two possible deterrent benefits. First, it strengthens its possessors’
ability to threaten aggressors with costs in the form of both counterforce denial and countervalue
punishment, thereby reducing dependence on great-power allies’ extended-deterrent
commitments. Second, it provides a new threat-proximate center of retaliatory decision, thereby
strengthening the credibility of great-power allies’ extended-deterrent commitments. However,
while LRCPS capabilities may indeed bring certain advantages, they may also exacerbate
political hostilities, incentivize intra-crisis escalation, and fail to provide adequate survivability
or penetrability to actually deliver their purported deterrent effects in practice. As such, the
overall consequences of such proliferation for strategic stability and associated international
security are ambiguous, thereby meriting case-by-case analysis. If they are pursued nonetheless,
moreover, then a countervailing combination of operational and strategic measures may be
employed to reduce both first-strike temptations and adversaries’ broader fears.
Social and Political Sciences, Philosophy, and Anthropology
Faculty of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences
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