Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients
dc.contributor.author | Sansone, D | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhu, A | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-04-03T10:31:11Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-04-02 | |
dc.date.updated | 2023-04-03T09:52:10Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Using high-quality nationwide social security data combined with machine learning tools, we develop predictive models of income support receipt intensities for any payment enrolee in the Australian social security system between 2014 and 2018. We show that machine learning algorithms can significantly improve predictive accuracy compared to simpler heuristic models or early warning systems currently in use. Specifically, the former predicts the proportion of time individuals are on income support in the subsequent 4 years with greater accuracy, by a magnitude of at least 22% (14 percentage points increase in the R-squared), compared to the latter. This gain can be achieved at no extra cost to practitioners since the algorithms use administrative data currently available to caseworkers. Consequently, our machine learning algorithms can improve the detection of long-term income support recipients, which can potentially enable governments and institutions to offer timely support to these at-risk individuals. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Australian Research Council (ARC) | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Published online 2 April 2023 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12550 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | LP170100472 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/132829 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0002-5469-6715 (Sansone, Dario) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Wiley / Oxford University | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2023 The Authors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics published by Oxford University and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | en_GB |
dc.title | Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2023-04-03T10:31:11Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1468-0084 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | This paper uses unit record data from the Centrelink administrative records from the Department of Social Services (DSS). | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics | en_GB |
dc.relation.ispartof | Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2023-03-21 | |
dcterms.dateSubmitted | 2021-12-20 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2023-04-02 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2023-04-03T09:52:12Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | AM | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2023-04-03T10:31:12Z | |
refterms.panel | C | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2023-04-02 |
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This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.