Developing a model of guilty plea decision-making: Fuzzy-trace theory, gist, and categorical boundaries
Zottoli, TM; Helm, RK; Edkins, VA; et al.Bixter, MT
Date: 1 June 2023
Article
Journal
Law and Human Behavior
Publisher
American Psychological Association
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Objective(s): To date, most research on plea bargaining has used some form of the Shadow of
the Trial model (SOT) to frame defendant decisions. In this paper we proposed and tested a new
conceptual model of plea decision making, based on Fuzzy-Trace Theory (FTT; Reyna, 2012),
for the context in which a non-detained, guilty defendant ...
Objective(s): To date, most research on plea bargaining has used some form of the Shadow of
the Trial model (SOT) to frame defendant decisions. In this paper we proposed and tested a new
conceptual model of plea decision making, based on Fuzzy-Trace Theory (FTT; Reyna, 2012),
for the context in which a non-detained, guilty defendant chooses between a guilty plea or trial,
where both the plea and potential trial sentence entail incarceration. Hypotheses: Plea decisions
will be affected by (1) meaningful, categorical changes in conviction probability (e.g., low-tomoderate;
moderate-to-high), and not by more granular changes within categories, and (2) the
presence and magnitude of categorical distinctions between plea offer and potential trial
sentence, rather than fine-grained differences between individual offers. Method: We conducted
three vignette-based experiments (N1 = 1,701, N2 = 1,098, N3 = 1,232), using MTurk
participants. In studies 1 and 2, we manipulated potential trial sentence and conviction
probability, and asked participants to indicate either the maximum plea sentence they would
accept (Study 1), or whether they would plead guilty to a specific offer (Study 2). In study 3, we
manipulated plea discount and potential trial sentence, and measured plea acceptance. Results:
Maximum acceptable plea sentences were similar within, and different between, “groupings” of
meaningfully similar conviction probabilities (Study 1). Plea rates were similar within, and
different between, “groupings” that comprised plea offers of similarly meaningful distance from
potential trial sentence (Study 3). Results also provide insight into the plea rates that might be
expected under different combinations of the independent variables (Studies 2 & 3).
Conclusions: Results support a new conceptual model of plea decision-making that may be
better suited to explaining case-level differences in plea outcomes than SOT and suggest that
future research extending this model to a wider range of contexts would be fruitful.
Law School
Faculty of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences
Item views 0
Full item downloads 0