Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions
dc.contributor.author | Knoke, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Hanley, N | |
dc.contributor.author | Roman-Cuesta, RM | |
dc.contributor.author | Groom, B | |
dc.contributor.author | Venmans, F | |
dc.contributor.author | Paul, C | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-07-25T13:37:28Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-07-13 | |
dc.date.updated | 2023-07-25T11:34:43Z | |
dc.description.abstract | Reducing global forest losses is essential to mitigate climate change and its associated social costs. Multiple market and non-market factors can enhance or reduce forest loss. Here, to understand the role of non-market factors (for example, policies, climate anomalies or conflicts), we can compare observed trends to a reference (expected) scenario that excludes non-market factors. We define an expected scenario by simulating land-use decisions solely driven by market prices, productivities and presumably plausible decision-making. The land-use allocation model considers economic profits and uncertainties as incentives for forest conversion. We compare reference forest losses in Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia (2000–2019) with observed forest losses and assign differences from non-market factors. Our results suggest that non-market factors temporarily lead to lower-than-expected forest losses summing to 11.1 million hectares, but also to phases with higher-than-expected forest losses of 11.3 million hectares. Phases with lower-than-expected forest losses occurred earlier than those with higher-than-expected forest losses. The damages avoided by delaying emissions that would otherwise have occurred represent a social value of US$61.6 billion (as of the year 2000). This result shows the economic importance of forest conservation efforts in the tropics, even if reduced forest loss might be temporary and reverse over time. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Published online 13 July 2023 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01175-9 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | KN586/19-1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | PA3162/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | CRC990 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 192626868 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | ES/R009708/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/X002292/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/133655 | |
dc.identifier | ORCID: 0000-0003-0729-143X (Groom, Ben) | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://www.globalforestwatch.org/ | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?locations=BR | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8016364 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23366501 | en_GB |
dc.relation.url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8016364 | en_GB |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2023. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dc.title | Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2023-07-25T13:37:28Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2398-9629 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.description | Data availability: Datasets used are published and cited scientific work. We used information on agricultural productivity and prices available from FAOSTAT at https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/. Data on observed forest loss were obtained from Global Forest Watch: Forest Monitoring, Land Use and Deforestation Trends available at https://www.globalforestwatch.org/ and GDP data from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?locations=BR. Compiled data are documented in Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8016364. Data used to create figures are available via figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23366501. | en_GB |
dc.description | Code availability: Spreadsheet versions of the optimization are available in Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8016364 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2398-9629 | |
dc.identifier.journal | Nature Sustainability | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2023-06-14 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2023-07-13 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2023-07-25T12:59:55Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2023-07-25T13:37:33Z | |
refterms.panel | C | en_GB |
refterms.dateFirstOnline | 2023-07-13 |
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