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dc.contributor.authorOsborne, Joe M.
dc.contributor.authorLambert, F. Hugo
dc.contributor.authorGroenendijk, Margriet
dc.contributor.authorHarper, Anna B.
dc.contributor.authorKoven, Charles D.
dc.contributor.authorPoulter, B
dc.contributor.authorPugh, Thomas A.M.
dc.contributor.authorSitch, S
dc.contributor.authorStocker, Benjamin D.
dc.contributor.authorWiltshire, Andy
dc.contributor.authorZaehle, Sönke
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-24T16:32:12Z
dc.date.issued2015-12
dc.description.abstractCentury-long observed gridded land precipitation datasets are a cornerstone of hydrometeorological research. But recent work has suggested that observed Northern Hemisphere midlatitude (NHML) land mean precipitation does not show evidence of an expected negative response to mid-twentieth-century aerosol forcing. Utilizing observed river discharges, the observed runoff is calculated and compared with observed land precipitation. The results show a near-zero twentieth-century trend in observed NHML land mean runoff, in contrast to the significant positive trend in observed NHML land mean precipitation. However, precipitation and runoff share common interannual and decadal variability. An obvious split, or breakpoint, is found in the NHML land mean runoff–precipitation relationship in the 1930s. Using runoff simulated by six land surface models (LSMs), which are driven by the observed precipitation dataset, such breakpoints are absent. These findings support previous hypotheses that inhomogeneities exist in the early-twentieth-century NHML land mean precipitation record. Adjusting the observed precipitation record according to the observed runoff record largely accounts for the departure of the observed precipitation response from that predicted given the real-world aerosol forcing estimate, more than halving the discrepancy from about 6 to around 2 W m22. Consideration of complementary observed runoff adds support to the suggestion that NHML-wide early-twentieth-century precipitation observations are unsuitable for climate change studies. The agreement between precipitation and runoff over Europe, however, is excellent, supporting the use of whole-twentieth-century observed precipitation datasets here.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipEngineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Commission’s 7th Framework Programmeen_GB
dc.identifier.citationVol. 16 (6), pp. 2403–2420en_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/JHM-D-15-0055.1
dc.identifier.grantnumberEP/J500422/1en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber282672 (EMBRACE)en_GB
dc.identifier.grantnumber603542 (LUC4C)en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10871/19057
dc.language.isoen_USen_GB
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_GB
dc.rightsThis is an open access article, This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_GB
dc.subjectGeographic location/entityen_GB
dc.subjectLand surfaceen_GB
dc.subjectAtm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomenaen_GB
dc.subjectPrecipitationen_GB
dc.subjectRunoffen_GB
dc.subjectMathematical and statistical techniquesen_GB
dc.subjectChangepoint analysisen_GB
dc.subjectModels and modelingen_GB
dc.subjectLand surface modelen_GB
dc.subjectVariabilityen_GB
dc.subjectClimate variabilityen_GB
dc.title.alternativeReconciling precipitation with runoff: observed hydrological change in the midlatitudesen_GB
dc.titleReconciling precipitation with runoff: observed hydrological change in the mid-latitudesen_GB
dc.typeArticleen_GB
dc.date.available2015-12-24T16:32:12Z
dc.identifier.issn1525-755X
dc.identifier.eissn1525-7541
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Hydrometeorologyen_GB


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