Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.
Journal of Environmental Management
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.
Reason for embargo
We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.
The authors acknowledge funding from the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement No. FP7-ENV-2012-308393-2 (OPERAs); the European Union via the Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship ‘Land Use Change, Environment and Society (LUCES)’ grant, (Ref: FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IOF-302290); and the Water Economics, Policy and Governance Network (WEPGN), funded by a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) Partnership Grant.
Vol. 181, 1 October 2016, pp. 172 - 184