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      Counterfactualism and Anticipation

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      Counterfactualism and Anticipation.pdf (192.6Kb)
      Date
      2017-09-30
      Author
      Morley, NDG
      Date issued
      2017-09-30
      Editor
      Poli, R
      Type
      Book chapter
      Language
      en
      Publisher
      Springer International
      Rights
      © Springer International Publishing AG. Part of Springer Nature.
      Embargo
      3999-01-01
      Reason for embargo
      Under indefinite embargo due to publisher policy. The final version is available from [publisher] via the DOI in this record.
      Abstract
      Most attempts at forecasting the future depend, explicitly or implicitly, on knowledge about the past, whether this is then used to offer possible analogies or to support normative theories with data about past events and trends. This approach is open to criticism both on the grounds of its assumptions about continuity and a tendency towards deterministic thinking, and on the grounds that our knowledge of the past is less secure and more discursive than such attempts at prediction assume. Counterfactualism, the development and exploration of accounts of ‘what might have been’ – which can be focused on obtaining better understanding of the past, or on refining theories of the present, or on speculations about the future – offers an alternative approach that emphasises the openness of historical developments. Its primary role is not to improve forecasting but to highlight its limitations, to expand our knowledge of how humans think about the future and the cognitive biases that dominate such thinking, and to establish the ethical imperative of engaging with possible futures. The qualities which make counterfactualism a marginal and suspect activity within historiography and social science are precisely those whichmake it an essential aspect of the discipline of anticipation.
      Description
      This is the author accepted manuscript.
      Citation
      In: Handbook of Anticipation - Theoretical and Applied Aspects of the Use of Future in Decision Making, edited by Roberto Poli
      DOI
      https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3
      URI
      http://hdl.handle.net/10871/29438
      ISBN
      978-3-319-31737-3
      Collections
      • Classics and Ancient History

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