dc.contributor.author | Collins, WJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Webber, CP | |
dc.contributor.author | Cox, PM | |
dc.contributor.author | Huntingford, C | |
dc.contributor.author | Lowe, J | |
dc.contributor.author | Sitch, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Chadburn, SE | |
dc.contributor.author | Comyn-Platt, E | |
dc.contributor.author | Harper, AB | |
dc.contributor.author | Hayman, G | |
dc.contributor.author | Powell, T | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-10-24T09:50:35Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2018-04-20 | |
dc.description.abstract | To understand the importance of methane on the levels of carbon emission reductions required to achieve temperature goals, a processed-based approach is necessary rather than reliance on the transient climate response to emissions. We show that plausible levels of methane (CH4) mitigation can make a substantial difference to the feasibility of achieving the Paris climate targets through increasing the allowable carbon emissions. This benefit is enhanced by the indirect effects of CH4on ozone (O3). Here the differing effects of CH4and CO2on land carbon storage, including the effects of surface O3, lead to an additional increase in the allowable carbon emissions with CH4mitigation. We find a simple robust relationship between the change in the 2100 CH4concentration and the extra allowable cumulative carbon emissions between now and 2100 (0.27 ± 0.05 GtC per ppb CH4). This relationship is independent of modelled climate sensitivity and precise temperature target, although later mitigation of CH4reduces its value and thus methane reduction effectiveness. Up to 12% of this increase in allowable emissions is due to the effect of surface ozone. We conclude early mitigation of CH4emissions would significantly increase the feasibility of stabilising global warming below 1.5 °C, alongside having co-benefits for human and ecosystem health. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | The work was undertaken as part of the UK Natural Environment Research Council's programme 'Understanding the Pathways to and Impacts of a 1.5 °C Rise in Global Temperature' through grants NE/P014909/1, MOC1.5 (WC, CW, CH, PC, SS, JL), NE/P015050/1 CLIFFTOP (EC-P, GH, SC), and NE/P014941/1 CLUES (PC, TP). AH acknowledges support from the EPSRC Fellowship 'Negative Emissions and the Food-Energy-Water Nexus' (EP/N030141/1). WC also acknowledges support under Research Council of Norway, project no. 235548. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 13 (5), article 054003 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1088/1748-9326/aab89c | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34408 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | IOP Publishing | en_GB |
dc.rights.embargoreason | © 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. | en_GB |
dc.rights | © 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. | en_GB |
dc.title | Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2018-10-24T09:50:35Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1748-9318 | |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this record | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Environmental Research Letters | en_GB |