Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks
Grassi, G; House, J; Kurz, WA; et al.Cescatti, A; Houghton, RA; Peters, GP; Sanz, MJ; Viñas, RA; Alkama, R; Arneth, A; Bondeau, A; Dentener, F; Fader, M; Federici, S; Friedlingstein, P; Jain, AK; Kato, E; Koven, CD; Lee, D; Nabel, JEMS; Nassikas, AA; Perugini, L; Rossi, S; Sitch, S; Viovy, N; Wiltshire, A; Zaehle, S
Date: 24 September 2018
Journal
Nature Climate Change
Publisher
Springer Nature
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the Paris Agreement’s Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy of about 4 GtCO2yr−1in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions between global models (reflected in ...
Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the Paris Agreement’s Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy of about 4 GtCO2yr−1in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions between global models (reflected in IPCC assessment reports) and aggregated national GHG inventories (under the UNFCCC). We show that a substantial part of this discrepancy (about 3.2 GtCO2yr−1) can be explained by conceptual differences in anthropogenic forest sink estimation, related to the representation of environmental change impacts and the areas considered as managed. For a more credible tracking of collective progress under the Global stocktake, these conceptual differences between models and inventories need to be reconciled. We implement a new method of disaggregation of global land model results that allows greater comparability with GHG inventories. This provides a deeper understanding of model–inventory differences, allowing more transparent analysis of forest-based mitigation and facilitating a more accurate Global stocktake.
Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
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