Escaping the Thucydides Trap in Political Commentary

Abstract

Executive Summary Thucydides (c.460-404 BCE) wrote an account of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta (431-404 BCE). He is often seen as the founder of critical historiography, but also as a pioneering political theorist, since he claims his account of the past will be useful in understanding present and future events. Thucydides is currently much in vogue, cited as an authority on global developments such as US-China relations and Brexit, as well as factionalism and populism within democratic politics. However, he did not offer simple principles of political behaviour, based on a timeless and universal human nature, although this is how he is often portrayed today. Rather, he presented a detailed narrative, including reconstructions of speeches and debates, to encourage his readers to reflect on the complex and unpredictable nature of events, the limitations of democratic deliberation, and the power of political rhetoric. It is a high irony that Thucydides himself is now being deployed as a rhetorical device. The more enduring and valid policy lesson to draw from Thucydides is not that human nature is a fixed entity through time, from which secure prognostications can be made, but that democracies are vulnerable to cognitive biases of various kinds, which can be manipulated by adroit rhetoricians. In recent years, the fifth-century BCE Greek author Thucydides has been perhaps the most widely cited classical authority, appearing in a surprisingly wide range of contexts from discussions of US-China relations to Brexit. Commentators have noted his presence in the Trump White House, cited both by political advisers and military figures, and he has also become more prominent in British political discourse. In many cases, however, he appears simply as an authoritative name attached to a few quotes; the nature of his work, an account of the war between Athens and Sparta known today as the Peloponnesian War (431-404), and the long history of its reception and influence, remains concealed.