Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point
Bateman, IJ; Ritchie, P; Smith, G; et al.Davis, K; Fezzi, C; Halleck-Vega, S; Harper, A; Boulton, C; Binner, A; Day, B; Gallego-Sala, A; Mecking, J; Sitch, S; Lenton, T
Date: 13 January 2020
Journal
Nature Food
Publisher
Nature Research
Publisher DOI
Abstract
Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating
changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of
different farming activities and promote land use changes. There is also potential for
high-impact ‘climate tipping points’ where abrupt, non-linear change in ...
Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating
changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of
different farming activities and promote land use changes. There is also potential for
high-impact ‘climate tipping points’ where abrupt, non-linear change in climate occurs
- such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the
impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture.
We show that economic/land use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include
widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output, an order of
magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The
agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological
adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the
costs appear prohibitive in this instance.
Economics
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy
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