Natural drivers of multidecadal Arctic sea ice variability over the last millennium
dc.contributor.author | Halloran, PR | |
dc.contributor.author | Hall, IR | |
dc.contributor.author | Menary, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Reynolds, DJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Scourse, JD | |
dc.contributor.author | Screen, JA | |
dc.contributor.author | Bozzo, A | |
dc.contributor.author | Dunstone, N | |
dc.contributor.author | Phipps, S | |
dc.contributor.author | Schurer, AP | |
dc.contributor.author | Sueyoshi, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhou, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Garry, F | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-01-22T09:26:45Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-01-20 | |
dc.description.abstract | The climate varies due to human activity, natural climate cycles, and natural events external to the climate system. Understanding the different roles played by these drivers of variability is fundamental to predicting near-term climate change and changing extremes, and to attributing observed change to anthropogenic or natural factors. Natural drivers such as large explosive volcanic eruptions or multidecadal cycles in ocean circulation occur infrequently and are therefore poorly represented within the observational record. Here we turn to the first high-latitude annually-resolved and absolutely dated marine record spanning the last millennium, and the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) Phase 3 Last Millennium climate model ensemble spanning the same time period, to examine the influence of natural climate drivers on Arctic sea ice. We show that bivalve oxygen isotope data are recording multidecadal Arctic sea ice variability and through the climate model ensemble demonstrate that external natural drivers explain up to third of this variability. Natural external forcing causes changes in sea-ice mediated export of freshwater into areas of active deep convection, affecting the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and thereby northward heat transport to the Arctic. This in turn leads to sustained anomalies in sea ice extent. The models capture these positive feedbacks, giving us improved confidence in their ability to simulate future sea ice in in a rapidly evolving Arctic. | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Leverhulme Trust | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | Australian Research Council | en_GB |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Union’s Horizon 2020 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.citation | Vol. 10, article 688 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41598-020-57472-2 | |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/N001176/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/N018486/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | NE/N001435/1 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | PLP‐2015‐215 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | SR140300001 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.grantnumber | 789445 | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/40531 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | en_GB |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) 2020. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. | en_GB |
dc.title | Natural drivers of multidecadal Arctic sea ice variability over the last millennium | en_GB |
dc.type | Article | en_GB |
dc.date.available | 2020-01-22T09:26:45Z | |
exeter.article-number | 688 | en_GB |
dc.description | This is the final version. Available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.journal | Scientific Reports | en_GB |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_GB |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2019-12-21 | |
exeter.funder | ::Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
exeter.funder | ::Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) | en_GB |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | en_GB |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2019-12-21 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | en_GB |
refterms.dateFCD | 2020-01-22T09:21:50Z | |
refterms.versionFCD | VoR | |
refterms.dateFOA | 2020-01-22T09:27:00Z | |
refterms.panel | B | en_GB |
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as © The Author(s) 2020. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.