Now showing items 1-7 of 7

  • Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble 

    Rowlands, Daniel J.; Frame, David J.; Ackerley, Duncan; Aina, Tolu; Booth, Ben B.B.; Christensen, Carl; Collins, Matthew; Faull, Nicholas; Forest, Chris E.; Grandey, Benjamin S.; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Highwood, Eleanor J.; Ingram, William J.; Knight, Sylvia; Lopez, Ana; Massey, Neil; McNamara, Frances; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Piani, Claudio; Rosier, Suzanne M.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Smith, Leonard A.; Stone, Daithi A.; hurston, Milo; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Yamazak, Y. Hiro; Allen, Myles R. (Nature Publishing Group, 2012)
    Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in ...
  • The carbon cycle response to ENSO: a coupled climate–carbon cycle model study 

    Jones, Chris D.; Collins, Matthew; Cox, Peter M.; Spall, Steven A. (American Meteorological Society, 2001)
    There is significant interannual variability in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) even when the effect of anthropogenic sources has been accounted for. This variability is well correlated with the El ...
  • Impact of a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme across time-scales and resolutions 

    Sanchez, Claudio; Williams, Keith D.; Shutts, Glenn; Collins, Matthew (Royal Meteorological Society, 2014)
    Stochastic physics is one of the preferred methods to represent model uncertainty in ensemble prediction systems of medium-range weather prediction and seasonal forecasting. These schemes increase the ensemble spread and ...
  • Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming 

    Cai, Wenju; Borlace, Simon; Lengaigne, Matthieu; van Rensch, Peter; Collins, Matthew; Vecchi, Gabriel; Timmermann, Axel; Santoso, Agus; McPhaden, Michael J.; Wu, Lixin; England, Matthew H.; Wang, Guojian; Guilyardi, Eric; Jin, Fei-Fei (Nature Publishing Group, 2014-01-19)
    El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as 'the climate event of the twentieth century', and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño, featured ...
  • Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming 

    Roberts, C.D.; Palmer, M.D.; McNeall, D.; Collins, Matthew (Nature Publishing Group, 2015-02-23)
    Since the end of the twentieth century, global mean surface temperature has not risen as rapidly as predicted by global climate models (GCMs). This discrepancy has become known as the global warming a hiatus'and a variety ...
  • Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models 

    Tietsche, S; Day, JJ; Guemas, V; Hurlin, WJ; Keeley, SPE; Matei, D; Msadek, R; Hawkins, E; Collins, Matthew (American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2014)
    We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate ...
  • Understanding El Nino in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: Progress and Challenges 

    Guilyardi, Eric; Wittenberg, Andrew; Fedorov, Alexey; Collins, Matthew; Wang, Chunzai; Capotondi, Antonietta; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stockdale, Tim (American Meteorological Society, 2009)
    Determining how El Niño and its impacts may change over the next 10 to 100 years remains a difficult scientific challenge. Ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are routinely used both to analyze El ...