The long memory model of political support: some further results
Cardiff Business School; University of Exeter; Lancaster University
Routledge, part of the Taylor & Francis Group
This article extends the results of Byers et al. (1997) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0, d, 0) model, though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s had no apparent effect on the estimated value of d for either party. Finally, we find that we cannot reject the hypotheses that the parties share a common long memory parameter which we estimate at around 0.65.
Paper issued by Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department in its series Working Papers. Final version published by Routledge and available on http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/routledge/00036846.html
Applied Economics, Volume 39, Number 20, November 2007 , pp. 2547-2552